FSD scenario model
This model turns Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions into revenue and gross profit for each year to 2035. It starts from the numbers Tesla reported, and the sliders change the price, the fleet, and the share of cars that pay for FSD.
Where the model starts
Tesla's Q3 2026 update of October 21, 2026 reports 1.74 million active FSD (Supervised) subscriptions, up from 1.48 million in Q2 2026. The scenarios below still start from the June run rate.
Run the scenarios
Subscriptions keep growing by 530,000 a year, the pace of the 4 quarters to June 30, 2026, and the price stays at $99 a month.
Subscriptions climb in a straight line from 1.48 million at June 30, 2026 to 10 million by mid-2035, the FSD goal in Elon Musk's pay plan as chief executive officer (CEO), the 2025 CEO Performance Award. The price stays at $99 a month. The board set the goal as a pay condition, and Tesla has given no date for reaching it.
These are the assumptions of Ryan Tanaka, who writes this site, from his own Tesla workbook: FSD in 45% of the fleet by 2030 and 80% by 2035, $199 a month from 2027 rising to $499 by 2033, and deliveries up 18% to 23% a year through 2030. The preset starts from 2025 actuals and keeps 2026 at $99.
His July 2025 workbook assumed 1.78 million deliveries in 2025. Tesla delivered 1,636,129.
Assumptions
Results for 2030
At the end of 2030, this scenario has 3.87 million FSD subscriptions at $99 a month, covering 21.6% of a fleet of 17.86 million Teslas.
FSD revenue for 2030 comes to $4.28 billion. At a 70% gross margin, that leaves $2.99 billion of gross profit, equal to 18% of Tesla's whole 2025 gross profit of $17.1 billion, or $0.85 per diluted share at the 2025 share count.
Subscriptions grow by about 530,000 a year from June 2026, the pace of the 4 quarters to June 30, 2026.
Subscriptions stay below 10 million, the FSD goal in Elon Musk's 2025 CEO Performance Award, through 2030.
Millions at each period end: actual to June 30, 2026, then scenarios (dashed)
US dollars billions in this scenario, 2026 to 2030 (dashed outline: revenue; filled: gross profit)
Year by year
| Year | Deliveries | Fleet at year end | FSD share | Subscriptions | Price a month | FSD revenue | Gross profit | Per share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.79M | 10.54M | 16.5% | 1.75M | $99 | $1.69B | $1.18B | $0.34 |
| 2027 | 1.88M | 12.27M | 18.5% | 2.27M | $99 | $2.39B | $1.67B | $0.47 |
| 2028 | 1.98M | 14.06M | 20.0% | 2.81M | $99 | $3.02B | $2.11B | $0.60 |
| 2029 | 2.07M | 15.92M | 20.9% | 3.33M | $99 | $3.65B | $2.55B | $0.72 |
| 2030 | 2.18M | 17.86M | 21.6% | 3.87M | $99 | $4.28B | $2.99B | $0.85 |
Sensitivity: price against FSD share at the end of 2030
| FSD share of the fleet | $99 | $149 | $199 | $249 | $349 | $499 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 3.2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 16.0 |
| 25% | 5.3 (closest to this scenario) | 8.0 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 18.7 | 26.7 |
| 35% | 7.4 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 18.7 | 26.2 | 37.4 |
| 45% | 9.5 | 14.4 | 19.2 | 24.0 | 33.7 | 48.1 |
| 60% | 12.7 | 19.2 | 25.6 | 32.0 | 44.9 | 64.2 |
FSD revenue run rate at the end of 2030 in US dollars billions: subscriptions at year end x monthly price x 12, on this scenario's fleet of 17.86 million cars. The outlined cell is closest to this scenario (21.6% of the fleet at $99 a month), whose own run rate is $4.59 billion. The run rate at June 30, 2026 was $1.76 billion.
Ryan's assumptions against what Tesla reported
Preset C keeps the price and adoption paths from Ryan's workbook (version 4.4, file dated July 29, 2025) and replaces its starting points with reported figures. The table shows how far those starting points were from what Tesla later reported.
| Item | His workbook | Reported |
|---|---|---|
| Deliveries in 2025 | 1.78 million | 1,636,129, Tesla Q4 2025 Update |
| Teslas delivered all time, end of 2025 | 8.84 million | 8.9 million, Tesla Q4 2025 Update |
| FSD price in 2025 | $149 a month | $99 a month, Tesla FSD subscriptions |
| FSD share of the fleet, end of 2025 | 13% | 12.4% (1.10 million of 8.9 million), Tesla Q4 2025 Update |
| Deliveries in 2026 | 1.958 million | 1,324,681 through September 30, Tesla Q3 2026 deliveries release |
| FSD share of the fleet, 2026 | 19% at year end | 15.2% at June 30 (1.48 million of 9.72 million), Tesla Q2 2026 Update |
| FSD price in 2026 | $199 a month | $99 a month, Tesla FSD subscriptions |
His workbook also assumed FSD gross margins rising from 59% in 2026 to 87% in 2035. Preset C uses the same 70% as the other presets, so the 3 presets differ only in price, fleet, and adoption.
What Tesla does not report
- Tesla books FSD inside automotive and services revenue, so the model has no reported FSD revenue to check against.
- Tesla gives no FSD gross margin. The 70% default is an assumption, and the slider runs from 40% to 90%.
- Tesla's 1.48 million count includes owners who paid up front and pay nothing each month, so subscriptions times $99 overstates today's cash revenue.
- Tesla reports all-time deliveries and gives no count of the cars still on the road. The model starts from all-time deliveries and retires 1.5% of the fleet a year by default.
- Cars with Hardware 3 (HW3), Tesla's 2019 driving computer, run a lighter FSD build, and Tesla has not said how many of them remain. The model treats every car as able to subscribe.
- Prices differ outside the United States, and the model applies the United States price to every subscription.
How the model works
- The fleet starts at 8,886,139 cars, every Tesla delivered through 2025. Each year it loses the share set by the retirement slider and gains that year's deliveries.
- Deliveries in 2026 are 1,791,813: the 1,324,681 delivered through September plus 467,132 for the fourth quarter, the figure implied by the analyst consensus Tesla compiled on September 29, 2026. Later years grow at the delivery slider's rate.
- Subscriptions at each year end are the fleet times the FSD share. The share starts from 15.2% at June 30, 2026 and follows the preset's path, stretched or shrunk to reach the 2035 value on the slider.
- The price is $99 in 2026 and changes at the price slider's rate after that, except in preset C, which follows Ryan's price path until the slider moves.
- Revenue in a year is the average of the subscriptions at the start and the end of the year, times the monthly price, times 12. Counting year-end subscriptions for all 12 months would overstate revenue in a growth year.
- Gross profit is revenue times the margin. Per share figures divide by 3,528 million, Tesla's diluted share count for 2025. The model stops at gross profit and gives no share price or fair value.
Sources (11)
- Tesla Q2 2026 Update (Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, July 22, 2026)
- Tesla Q4 2025 Update (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, January 28, 2026)
- Tesla Q3 2026 production, deliveries and deployments (SEC Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, October 2, 2026)
- Tesla Form 10-K for 2025 (filed January 29, 2026)
- Tesla 2025 proxy statement, 2025 CEO Performance Award (Schedule 14A, September 17, 2025)
- Tesla company-compiled delivery consensus, Q3 2026 (September 29, 2026)
- Teslanorth: Tesla investor relations posts Q3 2026 delivery consensus (September 29, 2026)
- Tesla: Full Self-Driving (Supervised) subscriptions
- Seeking Alpha: FSD only available as a subscription after February 14 (January 14, 2026)
- Elon, Explained Tesla KPI dashboard: quarterly deliveries since 2013, audited against SEC filings
- Ryan Tanaka's Tesla valuation workbook, version 4.4 (file dated July 29, 2025), Detailed Valuation sheet (private)