Neuralink moves to high-volume, automated implant surgery
Elon Musk said on X that Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026.
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The promises, and where each one stands.
Open public promises, with deadlines where he gave one.
Neuralink Blindsight to restore limited sight to the blind
Elon Musk said Neuralink is aiming to restore limited sight to the completely blind, with the first human implantation of the Blindsight device targeted for as early as 2026. The first Blindsight implantation was still to come as of early October 2026.
Starship demonstrates full reusability
Elon Musk said that, absent major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability by catching both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage while delivering more than 100 tons to a useful orbit. Flight 14 reached orbit on September 28, 2026. SpaceX has caught Super Heavy boosters with its launch tower since October 2024, and catching the ship is the next step.
Starship V3 carries 100-plus tons to low Earth orbit
Elon Musk said the Starship Version 3 vehicle is designed to deliver more than 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit in a reusable configuration, roughly triple the Version 2 hardware.
First uncrewed Starships launch toward Mars
Elon Musk said SpaceX would begin launching uncrewed Starships toward Mars during the late-2026 transfer window, then put the odds of hitting that window at about 50/50. In February 2026 he said SpaceX had shifted its focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon and would begin building a Mars city in about 5 to 7 years.
Grok 5 to reach artificial general intelligence
Elon Musk said Grok 5 will be artificial general intelligence (AGI), meaning AI that can do any intellectual task a person can, or something indistinguishable from it, and put the probability at 10% and rising. The newest model as of early October 2026 was Grok 4.7, released September 21, 2026, with Grok 5 next.
Grok 3 released as open weights
Elon Musk said in August 2025, when xAI released the Grok 2.5 model weights for anyone to download, that Grok 3 would follow in about six months. In October 2026 xAI's public model page listed Grok-1 and Grok-2 as its open-weights releases, with Grok 3 next in line.
MACROHARD, a purely AI software company
Elon Musk announced MACROHARD, a project to build a purely AI software company that simulates the functions of software firms like Microsoft, with a Digital Optimus user experience targeted within roughly six months. That six-month target pointed to February 2026, and MACROHARD is now a joint Tesla and SpaceXSI project.
Robotaxis widespread across the US by end of 2026
Elon Musk said Tesla's Robotaxi service, already running in a few cities, will become very widespread across the United States by the end of 2026. By July 2026 it ran in 7 U.S. metro areas, 6 of them with no one in the car.
Unsupervised FSD in customer-owned cars in Q4 2026
Asked when fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) would reach personally owned Teslas, Elon Musk said on the earnings call that it would probably arrive in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Optimus reaches a 1 million-unit annual production line
Elon Musk said Tesla will stand up an Optimus production line built for 1 million units a year, with production beginning at Fremont in late July or August 2026 and ramping toward that capacity. At Tesla's Q2 2026 update the Fremont line was being installed, with the Optimus V3 unveiling next.
Cybercab volume production ramps exponentially by end of 2026
Elon Musk said Cybercab production, which began in April 2026, will follow a stretched S-curve and ramp exponentially toward the end of the year, with a long-term target of about 2 million Cybercabs a year. Paid Cybercab rides began in Austin on September 4, 2026.
Next-generation Roadster unveiled with a live demo in 2026
Elon Musk said the next-generation Tesla Roadster would be unveiled with a live demo featuring the SpaceX package. Tesla set the reveal for October 1, 2026 at SpaceX's test site in McGregor, Texas, moved it to October 15 because of a severe weather forecast, and held it that night.
Megapack 3 and Megablock deliveries begin in the second half of 2026
Tesla committed that deliveries of its new Megapack 3 and Megablock grid-storage products will begin in the second half of 2026, with Megapack 3 built in Houston at a projected 50 gigawatt-hours (GWh) a year. Tesla's Texas plant began making Megapack 3 in August 2026.
Starship HLS lands crew on the Moon for Artemis
SpaceX is contracted to land NASA astronauts on the Moon with Starship. NASA now plans the first crewed landing for Artemis IV in early 2028, after a 2027 Artemis III test in Earth orbit where the Orion capsule docks with the landers.
AI5 inference chip moves to volume production
Elon Musk said Tesla's AI5 inference chip, the computer that runs its driving and robot software, would see small-batch production in 2026 with volume production projected for 2027. Tesla finished the AI5 design in April 2026.
Tesla market cap and operations milestones for the 2025 pay package
Under the shareholder-approved 2025 CEO pay plan, Tesla set forward targets including 20 million vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Optimus robots delivered, 1 million robotaxis in operation, and a market value rising toward $8.5 trillion.
Self-sustaining city of 1 million people on Mars by 2050
Elon Musk said SpaceX will build more than 1,000 Starships and run about 20 years of launch campaigns to establish a self-sustaining Martian city of roughly 1 million people by around 2050.
Vegas Loop expands toward a 68-mile, 123-station network
The Boring Company is building out the Vegas Loop toward a network that Clark County and the City of Las Vegas have approved for 68 miles of tunnel and 123 stations, with Elon Musk confirming active tunneling.
Vegas Loop reaches the airport by tunnel
Since late December 2025, Vegas Loop cars have carried riders to Terminals 1 and 3 at Harry Reid International Airport, partly on surface streets. Crews are building the tunnel connection to the airport.
Future Starlink direct-to-cell constellations add full voice and data
Elon Musk said that while the first direct-to-cell constellation offers limited bandwidth per beam, future constellations will be much more capable, expanding direct-to-device service toward full voice and data indistinguishable from fifth-generation (5G) cellular service.
Colossus 2 scales toward 1 million-plus GPUs
Elon Musk said the Colossus 2 supercomputer for Grok, billed as the first gigawatt-scale training cluster, would expand to 1.5 gigawatts, and that xAI, now SpaceXSI, is on a roadmap toward 1 million graphics processing units (GPUs) and beyond. Colossus 2 held about 550,000 GPUs in late September 2026.
Sleep or use your phone during an unsupervised FSD ride
Elon Musk posted on X that the big jump in value for Full Self-Driving comes when a customer can be on their phone or sleeping for the entire ride under unsupervised FSD.
Optimus could exceed $10 trillion in revenue and be 80% of Tesla
Elon Musk said the Optimus humanoid robot has the potential to bring in more than $10 trillion in long-term revenue and that roughly 80% of Tesla's future value would eventually come from Optimus.
Optimus scales to 10 million units a year at Giga Texas
Elon Musk said Tesla is building a second-generation Optimus production line at Gigafactory Texas with a long-term designed capacity of up to 10 million humanoid robots a year.
TERAFAB targets 1 terawatt of annual AI compute
Elon Musk launched TERAFAB, a chip factory Tesla and SpaceX plan to build together, aiming for 1 terawatt of AI computing power a year and scaling toward 1 million wafer starts a month on a 2-nanometer process. Its first phase is planned for Grimes County, Texas.
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This tracker lists predictions in progress as of October 7, 2026, including ones whose original target date has passed and that are still expected to happen. A prediction moves off the page once it is achieved or replaced by a newer target. Each entry links to its source.
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