27 predictions, not yet kept and not yet broken. Each with a deadline.
Elon Musk said on X that Neuralink will start high-volume production of brain-computer interface devices and move to a streamlined, almost entirely automated surgical procedure in 2026.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Neuralink is aiming to restore limited sight to the completely blind, with the first human implantation of the Blindsight device targeted for as early as 2026.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said that, absent major setbacks, SpaceX will demonstrate full reusability by catching both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship upper stage while delivering over 100 tons to a useful orbit.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said the Starship Version 3 vehicle is designed to deliver more than 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit in a reusable configuration, roughly triple the V2 hardware.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said SpaceX would begin launching uncrewed Starships toward Mars during the late-2026 transfer window, though he later described hitting that window as roughly 50/50 amid a shift to prioritize a lunar landing.
Read the explainer →SpaceX said the larger V3 Starlink satellites, deployed from Starship, will bring gigabit connectivity to users and add 60 terabits per second of downlink capacity per launch, beginning operational deployment in 2026.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Grok 5 will be AGI or something indistinguishable from AGI, and estimated the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI at 10% and rising. Grok 5 had not been released as of mid-2026.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk announced MACROHARD, a project to build a purely AI software company that simulates the functions of software firms like Microsoft, with a Digital Optimus user experience targeted within roughly six months.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Tesla's robotaxi service, already running in a few cities, will become very widespread across the United States by the end of 2026.
Read the explainer →Asked when fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving would reach personally owned Teslas, Elon Musk said on the earnings call that it would probably arrive in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Tesla will stand up a one million unit per year Optimus production line, with production beginning at Fremont in late July or August 2026 and ramping toward that capacity.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Cybercab production, which began in 2026, will follow a stretched S-curve and ramp exponentially toward the end of the year, with a long-term target of about 2 million Cybercabs annually.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said the next-generation Tesla Roadster will be unveiled, with a live demo, at an event at Giga Texas, calling it a banger and next-level, after delays to incorporate the SpaceX package.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Tesla would begin volume production of the Semi at its Northern Nevada factory in 2026, with the dedicated plant designed to scale toward 50,000 units per year.
Read the explainer →Tesla committed that deliveries of its new Megapack 3 and Megablock grid-storage products will begin in the second half of 2026, with Megapack 3 built in Houston at a projected 50 GWh per year.
Read the explainer →SpaceX is contracted to provide the Starship Human Landing System to land NASA astronauts on the Moon, with the crewed landing tied to the Artemis program timeline and Elon Musk also pursuing a self-growing lunar city.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Tesla's AI5 inference chip would see small-batch production in 2026 with volume production projected for 2027.
Read the explainer →Under the shareholder-approved 2025 CEO pay plan, Tesla set forward targets including 20 million vehicle deliveries, 10 million active FSD subscriptions, 1 million Optimus bots delivered, 1 million robotaxis in operation, and a market cap rising toward $8.5 trillion.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said SpaceX will build over 1,000 Starships and run about 20 years of launch campaigns to establish a self-sustaining Martian city of roughly one million people by around 2050.
Read the explainer →The Boring Company is building out the Vegas Loop toward a long-term network of up to 104 stations and about 68 miles of tunnel carrying as many as 1,200 Tesla vehicles, with Elon Musk confirming active tunneling.
Read the explainer →The Boring Company began Phase 1 testing of Vegas Loop service to Harry Reid International Airport, with the airport connection slated to enter service as the tunnel network expands.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said that while the first direct-to-cell constellation offers limited bandwidth per beam, future constellations will be much more capable, expanding direct-to-device service toward full voice and data indistinguishable from 5G.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said the Colossus 2 supercomputer for Grok, billed as the first gigawatt-scale training cluster, would expand to 1.5 GW and that SpaceXAI is on a roadmap toward 1 million GPUs and beyond.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk posted on X that the massive value jump for Full Self-Driving comes when a customer can be on their phone or sleeping for the entire ride under unsupervised FSD.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said the Optimus humanoid robot has the potential to be north of $10 trillion in long-term revenue and that roughly 80% of Tesla's future value would eventually come from Optimus.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk said Tesla is building a second-generation Optimus production line at Gigafactory Texas with a long-term designed annual capacity of up to 10 million humanoid robots per year.
Read the explainer →Elon Musk launched TERAFAB, a chip fabrication venture among Tesla, SpaceX, and SpaceXAI, aiming for one terawatt of AI compute annually and scaling toward 1 million wafer starts per month on a 2nm process.
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This tracker lists only predictions that are still open as of mid-2026. Items already achieved or already missed are deliberately excluded. Each entry traces to an allowed primary source.
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